The death of Chavez / A Morte de Chavez
reflections:
- The Chavismo tends to survive politically by and some of their policies of his successors, just like survived Peronism (Argentina) , Getulism (Brazil), etc..
- The national uproar over the death of Chavez does not facilitate the victory of opposition sectors in future elections in so little time .... 30 days.
- The declaration of the Armed Forces of full support to the Vice President indicates that, at least at this point, Chavismo in Venezuela is united, the unions sector and the military sector united strengthen a likely victory in future elections.
- Maduro is a union leader in whose union origin is metroviarios –informations show that he is a kind of a charismatic leader, facilitating a likely election victory.
- Chavez was already approaching the U.S. government, and Chavez said he would vote for Obama if he were American-It should be remembered that most Venezuelan oil is exported to the U.S.. The second largest customer is China.
- A statement of Maduro that was the U.S. that caused the death of Chavez and hence the expulsion of U.S. diplomats, may be mere posturing to appear before the public as having the same policy supposedly to be anti-imperialist .. .. but the trend may decrease the aggressive tone and gradually reconnect Venezuela to U.S. and the loser will be China-Venezuela depends more on the sale of oil to the U.S. than to China.
- If it materializes the approach of chavismo (without Chavez) of U.S. imperialism, also Cuba loses, for obvious reasons.
- Even Maduro being the most visible public figure of chavismo and likely presidential candidate, the military will with keep their key positions in the oil economy and will have influential role in government.
reflections:
- The Chavismo tends to survive politically by and some of their policies of his successors, just like survived Peronism (Argentina) , Getulism (Brazil), etc..
- The national uproar over the death of Chavez does not facilitate the victory of opposition sectors in future elections in so little time .... 30 days.
- The declaration of the Armed Forces of full support to the Vice President indicates that, at least at this point, Chavismo in Venezuela is united, the unions sector and the military sector united strengthen a likely victory in future elections.
- Maduro is a union leader in whose union origin is metroviarios –informations show that he is a kind of a charismatic leader, facilitating a likely election victory.
- Chavez was already approaching the U.S. government, and Chavez said he would vote for Obama if he were American-It should be remembered that most Venezuelan oil is exported to the U.S.. The second largest customer is China.
- A statement of Maduro that was the U.S. that caused the death of Chavez and hence the expulsion of U.S. diplomats, may be mere posturing to appear before the public as having the same policy supposedly to be anti-imperialist .. .. but the trend may decrease the aggressive tone and gradually reconnect Venezuela to U.S. and the loser will be China-Venezuela depends more on the sale of oil to the U.S. than to China.
- If it materializes the approach of chavismo (without Chavez) of U.S. imperialism, also Cuba loses, for obvious reasons.
- Even Maduro being the most visible public figure of chavismo and likely presidential candidate, the military will with keep their key positions in the oil economy and will have influential role in government.
A morte
de Chavez
Reflexões:
- O
chavismo tende a sobreviver politicamente através de seus sucessores e um pouco
de suas politicas, assim como sobreviveram o peronismo, getulismo ( Brasil),
etc.
- A
comoção nacional com a morte de Chavez não facilita a vitória dos setores de
oposição nas eleições futuras em tão pouco tempo....30 dias.
- A
declaração das Forças Armadas de total apoio ao vice-presidente
indica que, pelo menos nesse momento, o chavismo na Venezuela está unido, o
setor sindicalista e o setor militar unidos fortalecem uma provável vitória nas eleições.
- Maduro
é líder sindical em sua origem- metroviário- as informações são de que é tido
um líder carísmático, facilitando uma provável vitória eleitoral.
- A
política chavista já vinha se aproximando do governo americano, Chavez
declarou que votaria em Obama- Há que lembrar que a maior parte do petróleo
venezuelano é exportado para os EUA. O segundo maior cliente é a China.
- A
declaração de Maduro de que foram os EUA que causaram a morte de Chavez e, consequentemente,
a expulsão dos diplomatas americanos, pode
ser mero jogo de cena para aparecer junto ao público interno como continuador
da política supostamente anti-imperialista de Chavez....mas a tendência pode
ser diminuir o tom agressivo e gradualmente se reaproximar dos EUA- Quem
sairá perdendo é a China- A Venezuela depende muito mais da venda do petróleo
aos EUA do que se aproximar mais da China.
- Caso se
concretize a aproximação do chavismo (sem Chavez) do imperialismo americano,
também perde Cuba, por motivos óbvios.
- Mesmo Maduro sendo a figura pública mais visível do chavismo e
provável candidato a presidente, serão os militares com seus postos-chave na
economia petroleira que terão papel influente no governo.
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